spoiler alert, but only if you click the link

Here's the top 12 if you want to know...

You did good America!  Relax people west of Indiana.  The sound you just heard was the sound of thousands of people doing the happy dance.  (The others are not doing a happy dance...)

Let the game begin...

 

 

this is going to be painful...

Whew.  This is going to be tough.  Tonight we learn the final twelve contestants.  And we will finally see an end to the gender segregation, be treated to the always-fab group performances, slickly-produced product commercials, and watch all of the kids wiggle in their seats as they're informed that next week is Conway Twitty theme night.  Oh the fun is just beginning.

But first, we gotta chuck four of them, presumably two men and two women, barring some sort of last-minute sanity twist which might just drop-kick the bottom four, regardless of chromosomes.  (Okay, call me a dreamer, but this is a free country, and if I wanna be delusional, I can be.  God Bless America.)

And, speaking of delusional, as always, I have my top two performances on an mp3 file in my sidebar.  I always try to get them uploaded as quickly as possible, but usually the early version is rather low quality, as speed is of the essence and quality takes a back seat.  Usually by Wednesday, the file is much better audio, so if you've downloaded Mario or Anwar's performance, you might want to substitute the ones there now.  Much, much better quality.  And please know that you can help yourself to the files.  That's why they're there.

      

Okay, enough stalling.  Back to the business at hand.  Who is gonna be catching a flight out of Dodge tonight?

It seems to be the universal consensus that all of the men should stay and the show should just send the women packing.  I am in that consensus.  The problem with this segregation idea, while it sounded good in theory, is that the men have given us chills, thrills and airborne panties, while the women have given us, generally, an alternative to Sominex.  So, while the show was trying to avoid the gender imbalance it had last year, my prediction is that, in the early weeks of the finals, whichever women are still in the competition are simply going to picked off one-by-one like fleas on a dog until there are maybe three left before we lose the first man.  An all-male final five is a huge possibility, because the men, as a group, have formed a fan base separately from the women.  I don't think this is what the producers had in mind.  But it's part of what makes this show so interesting to watch.

And now, while I am still holding out hope for the twist, mind you, here's how I think it will play out. 

Travis is a goner.  He's the weakest of the remaining guys, but still more entertaining than four of the women.  His performance was a Travis-ty (sorry, couldn't resist!).  It was out of tune, it was winded, and it just didn't measure up to the others.  He should be eliminated.  And he will be.

That leaves the other slot.  There are three contenders:  Scott, Nikko and Constantine.  Bo, Anwar, Mario and Anthony are safe, either solely on the basis of their talent or the strength of their fans.  And, as always, since this is American Idol, the strength of the fans in the early rounds is much more important than the strength of the vocal cords.

I think Constantine can breathe easy.  His fans are rabid.  They are fixated on his charisma and his looks, and they are trusting that their guy has his best performances ahead of him.  There is no way they're going to let him down, especially after a sub-par (in relation) performance.  So, in actuality, it comes down to Scott and Nikko.

Trying to decide which of these two to choose is like trying to pick which of 31 flavors to put on a cone.  I want them both.  I want them all.  Scott has his obvious shortcomings, which is pretty much everything but his voice.  Nikko is attractive, he's charming, he's talented, but he's not the most memorable.  I often struggle to recall what song he performed each week.  He's also predictable in his song choice.  I want to see both of them on Conway Twitty night.

So I'll hold off with the flipping of this coin just now and think about the women.

     

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I wish for only enough of this group to bring the field to 12.  But, because I know the show is not all about me, I'm going to stick with the program and examine who will stay and who will, blessedly, be leaving.

Carrie, Nadia and Jessica, I think, are locks.  Nadia and Jessica have outperformed everyone else.  Carrie has proven she has the talent, but has been locked up in a bland box of her own making the past few weeks.  She's going to have to bust that lock to get to the halfway show, but that's a discussion for another time. 

Mikalah has a strong and emphatic fan base, despite the justified criticism she has received, and this inexplicable transformation from giddy teen to dowdy grand dame will hurt her in the long run, but not at this stage.

Vonzell overcame a dreary week of Alicia Keys impersonations to up her chances of sticking around by recognizing that the classic ladies like Aretha and Gladys will keep her in the game much longer than the new kids on the musical block will.

So, in reality, two of the other three will be leaving.  Of course it should be Janay.  But Janay should have left instead of Sarah.  Janay should have gone instead of Aloha.  Again, in the early rounds, it's not about talent; it's about fans and dialing fingers.

If Amanda doesn't leave tonight, she'll be the first one out of the finals.  Her Tina Turner rendition didn't come close to cutting it.  She should have deferred that song to Nadia, who would take it somewhere.  She is this year's Lisa Wilson and Katie Webber, and should get about as far as they did.

And Lindsey has the voice, but zero personality.  She's the female version of Nikko.  Simon was so correct.  She's good while she's doing it, but so easily forgettable once she's left the stage.

Trying to choose here reminds me of trying to predict last season toward the halfway point, because last season there was always the John Stevens factor.  I knew who should go, but, because I had to account for the vast number of the deaf pity votes, a true, reliable prediction was out of the question.

So, with that in mind, here I go.

Who should leave?  Travis and Constantine.  (Sorry Connie fans.)
Who should leave?  Janay and Amanda.

Who will leave?  Travis and Nikko.
Who will leave?  Amanda and Lindsey.

Ouch.  That hurt.

early observations on the "girls" ...

Last night it seemed, with the guys, that each performance was (usually) better than the ones that preceded it.  I knew that hoping for a repeat was foolish, but I hoped nonetheless.  I was right.  It was foolish.

I haven't subjected myself to the rewind and repeat, and I doubt that I will, but here are my initial reactions, again subject to revision and, as usual, from worst to first.

Janay Castine.  For the love of God and everything that is holy and pure, will you people stop voting for this child!  And Paula, if you dare continue to urge her deluded fans to vote, there will be no one but you to blame if your makeup kit mysteriously disappears.  I don't know what song she attempted to sing.  I do not care.  I want her gone.  Yesterday.

Amanda Avila.  You are not Tina Turner, so why you chose River Deep, Mountain High is beyond me.  You really are in a battle to escape the bottom two, and I think that performance was a white flag.  Well, at least Simon wants to be your microphone, so you don't leave empty handed.

Mikalah Gordon.  The judges must really have an agenda for you.  You made a fatal error taking on a song that Latoya London made hers last year.  Somewhere is a beautiful, wonderful ballad from a great musical, but I fear I will never again hear it without thinking of the clunkers I heard from you throughout it this evening.

Lindsey Cardinale.  I keep forgetting you're in this competition, and tonight's performance is probably one of the reasons.  Simon is right.  There is just something so intangibly missing from you, even though you really do have the chops to be memorable.  You just always miss the mark.  And, because I Don't Want to Miss a Thing, two country finalists are really all we need.

Carrie Underwood.  Because You Love Me?  Is that the name of the song you sang?  Keep this up and you can change the tense from present to past.  That was technically fine, but emotionally void.

Vonzell Solomon.  You musta read my mind.  Or my blog.  Forget Alicia.  Embrace Aretha!  And I don't care what Simon said, I loved your boots.  And, while you missed a few notes here and there, I Respect your performance, and think you deserve to continue.

Nadia Turner. You seem to be avoiding lyrically-challenging songs, and, while I enjoyed your version of Try a Little Tenderness, the repetitiveness of lyrics in your last two choices is just getting on my nerves.  But I've loved you since the start.  That hasn't changed.  But I do want to know what Bratz doll you mugged for that outfit. 

Jessica Sierra.  I had high hopes when I realized they had you last.  They always reserve the best performance for that slot, and you didn't let anybody down.  I don't understand the hoopla surrounding Carrie, when they've got the country star right here.  You rock, Jessica.  And I think you will hold your own even next week when the Boys are Back.

Who should leave and who will?  I'll get back to you on that.

Who's on your hit list?

 

early observations...

The men just continue to amaze and amuse me.  It was a good show again, and I listened intently:  at no time did Ryan say we would know the top six.  I am holding out hope that only one of the eight will leave.

I have not given myself the opportunity to rewind and rewatch.  These are my first impressions, as always, subject to review and revision.  And, as always, from worst to first.

Travis.  Geesh.  Did you just want to leave?  You were adorable in your gray Guys and Dolls get-up, but being in tune or, at least, somewhere near would have been preferred.  Goodbye Travis.  Your smile is adorable.

Scott.  One of my absolute rules to proceed is staying far away from selections made in previous years by well-known and beloved contestants who pretty much own the song now.  You broke the rule.  And you chose a song that didn't even get Clay a whole lot of praise for.  You wanted to show off your vocal range with "Sugar Pie Honeybunch?"  [Screwed that up originally, thinking of another Clay performance, hence the comment below.]  Vocally it was fine, but your continued attempts to be cool, even when it is obviously uncomfortable for you, really was uncomfortable tonight.  And, as a fan, it hurts me to say that.  You could have chosen such a better song.

Anthony.  First off, who spilled all the paint on your jacket, son?  Your performance will be enough to continue, but it just left me a bit unaffected.  Maybe I was missing something.

Constantine.  I liked the song, despite Simon's bizarre commentary.  Randy was right.  It was the best from you yet.

Nikko.  I think you saved yourself a trip home tonight, even though I was really hoping for something a bit different.  I'm really looking forward to country night to see you in some jeans and butt-kicking boots.  And a big ole hat.  Yeah. 

Bo.  A ballad.  How nice.  And for your aunt?  How nicer.  Simon is right -- this is yours to lose.  You didn't lose anything tonight.

Mario.  I was hoping you would drop the Las Vegas act and just sing.  And, even though you broke my rule of staying away from songs too closely associated with past Idols, your "How Can You Mend a Broken Heart,"  while not as good as Ruben's, was quite pleasing.  And you showed me you're not quite as smarmy as I thought you were.

Anwar.  Oh baby baby.  Let's just say I'm gonna need a ladder to get my panties off of the television.  If you're what the middle schools are offering in the way of teachers today, I am flunking myself back to eighth grade.

Who should leave:  Travis.

Who will leave, if two leave:  Scott and Travis.

But two do not have to leave.  Only one.  Please.  Only one. 

it's all about the girls...

Yeah, I know it's Monday.  And Monday means just one thing:  It's Men's Night on American Idol.  But after Monday is Tuesday, and Tuesday is Ladies Night.  So it's time to think about the finale of the women's semi-final round.

And so I shall.

It's the Elite Eight, which, if we're going to have six of them forced upon us in the finals, means two will be booted, even if more than two should be.

Carrie Underwood is solidly in the finals.  Simon put Carrie in the final four long before we knew who was in the final 24.  All she needs to do tomorrow is stay on tune, although flashing a little personality would always be a good idea.  Does Carrie have a personality?

Nadia Turner isn't going anywhere.  But I hope she stays away from the bland selections like last week.  She needs to keep finding the off-beat songs like her first week performance, the ones which best match her off-beat personality.  Of the women, she is the most unique, much like Fantasia was at this stage last season.

Mikalah Gordon will advance. She has too many fans not to.  Last week's performance earned her some new respect, and it's obvious someone with some sense is advising her and, more importantly, she's listening.  It's going to take a stunning reversal to win me over, but if she learns that noses are for breathing and mouths are for singing, we may begin to peacefully co-exist.

And that leaves the rest.

Jessica Sierra picked up a few fans last week.  Not that that's saying a whole lot, when your average performance is the best of the bland.  And she's splitting the country vote with Carrie, but probably is going to be the beneficiary of Celena's exit.  I think she's pretty secure, in spite of the campaign to "save the child."

Vonzell Solomon needs to stay far away from Alicia Keys and anything current.  She needs to appeal to the Aretha and Gladys fans.  If she can do that, she could advance.  She needs to remember that she was on the stage with Aloha last week, which probably means her vote total was third from the bottom.  She has to fight to pick up the votes that would have gone Aloha's way, but may be the victim of the "save the child" campaign. 

Amanda Avila.  Amanda could be in the danger zone.  She needs a memorable, upbeat performance, much like theGloria Estefan number from last week.  Her biggest advantage -- the fact that we will be forced to kick off two guys.  Her biggest disadvantage -- the "save the child" campaign.

Lindsey Cardinale.  The mere fact that I had to shuffle through my papers to remember who else is in this competition is a bad sign.  Lindsey is the least memorable of the bunch.  She needs to scream "remember me" tomorrow, with an audible, up-tempo number that includes moving her feet.  She will most likely be one of the victims of the "save the child" campaign.

Which leaves us with the child.  Janay Castine.  Oh Janay.  The best way for you to get into the finals is to dress as if you're 15 and deliver another off-pitch, out of tune, terrified performance.  Then everyone will feel so sorry for you and rush to the telephone to dial your number a gazillion times to make up for the fact that those mean guys verbally ripped you to shreds.  A few tears will help too.  Then Hawaii will kick into gear in the name of Jasmine, and before long, you will be in the final three.

There you have it.  And here's the fearless pre-show prediction.

Who's going home?  Lindsey and Vonzell.

 

it's not the end; it's the beginning...

They tell us this week is the end of the semi-finals.  By Wednesday night we will have 12 still standing on stage, preparing to begin the true competition.  I'm still holding out hope for a twist which will allow us to keep the top 12, not just the top six guys and top six women, but I'm not holding my breath. 

Monday the men take the stage.  And two will be sent packing.

Who deserves to stay?  Who should leave?

Bo Bice will stay.  He has evolved the furthest the fastest, going from split-decision selection to the judges' favorite.  And a fan favorite.  Are you a Bo fan?  Then you're a member of the Bice Squad.  Or a Bo Peep.  And the Bo Peeps are a determined group.

Mario Vazquez will remain.  He's got Justin's look and style.  And that look carried Justin to the finale on the strength of young girls with strong dialing hands.  I'm waiting for the evening that he stands and delivers a strong vocal performance without the reliance on show.  But he will continue.

Anwar Robinson will stick around.  He's got the backing of the NEA, the PTA, teachers and middle schoolers all across the country.  Plus he's just too handsome not to.  His performances thus far have been great, but I still think he's holding back, waiting for that one night when he lets it all go.  And when that happens, panties all across the country are gonna be flying.

Anthony Fedorov will stay.  The comparisons to Clay Aiken will continue, and Claymates everywhere will insist there is no similarity, but will be hitting redial in record numbers.  Certainly the story of his childhood is compelling, but he can only ride that so far before he's going to have to appeal to the voters with his vocal chords instead of his interviews.

These four are locks, which begs the question:  Which two will join them?

Travis Tucker rebounded from a horribly boring performance to hang in there another week.  Vocally, his was not the best, even compared to the dismissed Joe Murena, but when Simon remarked that Travis is a born showman, he was right.  But will that showmanship be enough to carry him past vocally-superior performers.  The fact that he was left standing last Wednesday alongside David and Joe, indicates that he might have been the third-lowest vote getter.  I think he was.  And I think he's doomed.

Nikko Smith.  I have his dad's rookie card.  It's encased in a plastic sleeve in my safe deposit box.  But I digress.  Nikko has turned in two solid, if somewhat forgettable, performances.  He needs to keep the hat off, put on a pair of jeans and let it all go this week.  With this group of rockers and showmen, a ballad can either be a nice break or a snoozer.  But, whatever he chooses, he really needs to make it memorable, because he's being overshadowed by this group.

Constantine Maroulis.  No screaming, Constantine.  Please.  You have the good fortune to have such unwavering support among your female fans, who will vote for you regardless.  Your misfortune is that many of your male fans have shifted their allegience to the better rock vocalist.  Bo has proven he has pure vocal ability, and Constantine has proven he has stage presence, but his vocals have been somewhat less.  He needs to select a song which will showcase his voice to prove to the doubters that he's more than a rocker on nickel-beer night.

And Scott Savol.  I always seem to leave Scott for last.  I am a huge Scott fan.  I adore his voice, and I'm a sucker for the unconventional longshot.  I think Scott, like Anwar, is sandbagging.  Despite what Simon and Paula said last week, I think Randy is right that Scott's performances have not lived up to his audition promise.  I want to see him in a dark suit.  Or in jeans and a long tee, ala Ruben.  And I want him to drown out the backup singers and the band.  Both of his performances thus far have been dominated by them.  I want to hear a glory note.  I doubt that panties will be flying when he decides to sing his lights out, but many of his doubters may just sit up and take notice.  After all, when they're on the radio, it don't matter what they look like.

I'm taking a deep breath.  I'm eenie, meenie, minee, moeing. 

Who will be leaving?  Travis and Nikko.

 

it's blinkie day...

And, of course, this means more great blinkies by Angel.  These are her original creations, made just for us, so please right click/save to your computer and stop by Angel's Creations to say thanks!  (The link is in the logo.)

     

     

     

     

     

* My apologies, but I seem to have lost Scott somewhere.  I'll try to find him.  But in the meantime, you may borrow mine: