Monday, May 24, 2004

time is ticking.......

It's nearly 24 hours before the last two American Idol contestants take the stage, sing three songs each, receive their comments and leave their fates to the public.  It's been a long season in many ways, and yet at times it feels as though the time has flown.  And it's been ugly.  Last season had the warring factions that any show of this type will inevitably create.  The Clay people and the Ruben people often employed cutting words toward each other, but somehow it always felt as though there was an underlying appreciation for the other contestant, if not a love for that person.  This season there seems to be much more vitriol directed at so many different contestants for so many different reasons, that I'm almost relieved that the show will conclude this week, and we can start fresh next year.  Although I will miss Tuesday nights with Simon.

The online straw polls that I've checked today indicate that Fantasia is the top choice.  The problem with these online surveys, aside from their scientific uselessness, is the fact that they cannot (or usually don't) reflect the voting ability of American Idol.  On most of them a voter is restricted to one click.  On Idol, voters will get four hours of constant redial.  So there is no possible way the online straw polls can predict anything of substance.  So, that's why I believe this competition is still too close to call.

Fantasia really is in the driver's seat.  She has it made regardless of Wednesday's results.  Clive Davis will have his nose so far up her butt it won't be funny.  And he should.  As should every other record producer out there.  She's a find.  She's a prize.  And she has a very dedicated fan base that has gotten her this far.  Plus, she will probably be the recipient of the many LaToya and George voters out there, as Fantasia best exemplifies their performance styles.  Of the two, Fantasia has the more natural presense.  Her "take-me-as-I-am" attitude is refreshing in comparison.  She exudes fun.  She's having a blast up on that stage, which is why it's so easy to detect the rare instances when she has been uncomfortable or a bit out of her element.

Diana is the polar opposite.  She has as powerful and awesome a voice as Fantasia, and but Diana still battles with the over-rehearsed, automatic, someone-flipped-the-switch-on-her type of performance style.  She has grown up on the stage, and it shows.  She has made great strides in the last few rounds to shed that image, almost seeming to throw out the "what I'm supposed to do" mindset and adopt a much-preferable "what I want to do" performance.  That switch has earned her the respect of Simon, her constant detractor, and the voting fans out there.  In addition, Diana has some advantages that Fantasia doesn't.  She's got the anti-Fantasia votes.  And there are many, and they are determined.  This has been a big part of the ugliness this year.  But to ignore that it exists is stupid.  Diana might also get the benefit of the Clay voters out there who have sensed that Fantasia is the annointed one this year, much as they felt Ruben was last season, and are determined not to let the judges get their way again.  She's also the most attractive to the pre-teens and young teens out there -- the ones with the energy and the tenacity to vote for a solid four hours.  Her annoying teenage mannerisms turn a lot of voters off, but those voters are not probably in the constant voter league.

I know who I believe should win.  And I know who I want to win.  But, honestly, I do not have a clue who I think will win.  It may just come down to performances tomorrow. 

As it should.

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