this is going to be painful...

Whew.  This is going to be tough.  Tonight we learn the final twelve contestants.  And we will finally see an end to the gender segregation, be treated to the always-fab group performances, slickly-produced product commercials, and watch all of the kids wiggle in their seats as they're informed that next week is Conway Twitty theme night.  Oh the fun is just beginning.

But first, we gotta chuck four of them, presumably two men and two women, barring some sort of last-minute sanity twist which might just drop-kick the bottom four, regardless of chromosomes.  (Okay, call me a dreamer, but this is a free country, and if I wanna be delusional, I can be.  God Bless America.)

And, speaking of delusional, as always, I have my top two performances on an mp3 file in my sidebar.  I always try to get them uploaded as quickly as possible, but usually the early version is rather low quality, as speed is of the essence and quality takes a back seat.  Usually by Wednesday, the file is much better audio, so if you've downloaded Mario or Anwar's performance, you might want to substitute the ones there now.  Much, much better quality.  And please know that you can help yourself to the files.  That's why they're there.

      

Okay, enough stalling.  Back to the business at hand.  Who is gonna be catching a flight out of Dodge tonight?

It seems to be the universal consensus that all of the men should stay and the show should just send the women packing.  I am in that consensus.  The problem with this segregation idea, while it sounded good in theory, is that the men have given us chills, thrills and airborne panties, while the women have given us, generally, an alternative to Sominex.  So, while the show was trying to avoid the gender imbalance it had last year, my prediction is that, in the early weeks of the finals, whichever women are still in the competition are simply going to picked off one-by-one like fleas on a dog until there are maybe three left before we lose the first man.  An all-male final five is a huge possibility, because the men, as a group, have formed a fan base separately from the women.  I don't think this is what the producers had in mind.  But it's part of what makes this show so interesting to watch.

And now, while I am still holding out hope for the twist, mind you, here's how I think it will play out. 

Travis is a goner.  He's the weakest of the remaining guys, but still more entertaining than four of the women.  His performance was a Travis-ty (sorry, couldn't resist!).  It was out of tune, it was winded, and it just didn't measure up to the others.  He should be eliminated.  And he will be.

That leaves the other slot.  There are three contenders:  Scott, Nikko and Constantine.  Bo, Anwar, Mario and Anthony are safe, either solely on the basis of their talent or the strength of their fans.  And, as always, since this is American Idol, the strength of the fans in the early rounds is much more important than the strength of the vocal cords.

I think Constantine can breathe easy.  His fans are rabid.  They are fixated on his charisma and his looks, and they are trusting that their guy has his best performances ahead of him.  There is no way they're going to let him down, especially after a sub-par (in relation) performance.  So, in actuality, it comes down to Scott and Nikko.

Trying to decide which of these two to choose is like trying to pick which of 31 flavors to put on a cone.  I want them both.  I want them all.  Scott has his obvious shortcomings, which is pretty much everything but his voice.  Nikko is attractive, he's charming, he's talented, but he's not the most memorable.  I often struggle to recall what song he performed each week.  He's also predictable in his song choice.  I want to see both of them on Conway Twitty night.

So I'll hold off with the flipping of this coin just now and think about the women.

     

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I wish for only enough of this group to bring the field to 12.  But, because I know the show is not all about me, I'm going to stick with the program and examine who will stay and who will, blessedly, be leaving.

Carrie, Nadia and Jessica, I think, are locks.  Nadia and Jessica have outperformed everyone else.  Carrie has proven she has the talent, but has been locked up in a bland box of her own making the past few weeks.  She's going to have to bust that lock to get to the halfway show, but that's a discussion for another time. 

Mikalah has a strong and emphatic fan base, despite the justified criticism she has received, and this inexplicable transformation from giddy teen to dowdy grand dame will hurt her in the long run, but not at this stage.

Vonzell overcame a dreary week of Alicia Keys impersonations to up her chances of sticking around by recognizing that the classic ladies like Aretha and Gladys will keep her in the game much longer than the new kids on the musical block will.

So, in reality, two of the other three will be leaving.  Of course it should be Janay.  But Janay should have left instead of Sarah.  Janay should have gone instead of Aloha.  Again, in the early rounds, it's not about talent; it's about fans and dialing fingers.

If Amanda doesn't leave tonight, she'll be the first one out of the finals.  Her Tina Turner rendition didn't come close to cutting it.  She should have deferred that song to Nadia, who would take it somewhere.  She is this year's Lisa Wilson and Katie Webber, and should get about as far as they did.

And Lindsey has the voice, but zero personality.  She's the female version of Nikko.  Simon was so correct.  She's good while she's doing it, but so easily forgettable once she's left the stage.

Trying to choose here reminds me of trying to predict last season toward the halfway point, because last season there was always the John Stevens factor.  I knew who should go, but, because I had to account for the vast number of the deaf pity votes, a true, reliable prediction was out of the question.

So, with that in mind, here I go.

Who should leave?  Travis and Constantine.  (Sorry Connie fans.)
Who should leave?  Janay and Amanda.

Who will leave?  Travis and Nikko.
Who will leave?  Amanda and Lindsey.

Ouch.  That hurt.