semifinal week one...

How are we supposed to live without you...

Guess we'll have to learn, because after tonight, four of you will become American Idol footnotes, listed forever in the "others" column.

It's punting day!  Tonight's the night when Ryan will take 10 minutes worth of material and turn it into an hour, thirty minutes of commercials, 20 minutes of nonsense and 10 minutes of boo-hoos.  And they're making us stay up until 10 p.m.

Of course, the question hanging over the evening will be who gets cut, and which ones of the boys and girls will live to wreck another song.

Let's talk about the boys.

Who is safest of the safe? 

Bo Bice.  Arguably one of the best performances of the Monday night show, it gained him in popularity what the lack of airtime cost him.  He may have just gone from an afterthought to a frontrunner for top 12.

Anwar Robinson.  He was a top contender going into Monday, and his ship continues to cruise up the Moon River swiftly.

Mario Vazquez.  Mario even gets top billing on AOL's welcome screen, and it's quite apparent he is the judges' baby.  And we all know what being the judges' baby can mean for little Ruben and little Fantasia wannabes.

They ain't going nowhere anytime soon.

Who's pretty safe?

Scott Savol.  Scott's got all the creepy lovers working their fingers to the bone to support the non-conventional candidate.  His performance was less than memorable, but he's built up enough credit to withstand a lesser performance, and he, and some others, have the advantage of plenty of more dismal ones.

Anthony Federov.  Pre-teen and teenaged girls are smoking the phone lines for this kid.  He could have hummed his song and escaped unscathed.

Nikko Smith.  Not great, but not the worst, and at least he was in tune, on tune or somewhere near tune.

Judd Harris.  JPL lovers unite!  Here's your guy.  Reborn in a new and improved model.

Constantine Maroulis.  He wishes he would have chosen Bo's song, but his fan base is secure, which makes him secure.  Oh sure, some people have their panties in a wad over a perceived rude remark he threw at Randy.  Most people didn't even hear it until the message boards started smoking.  This has become as pettyand as insignificant as Fantasia's flippant remark to Simon last season.  It too shall pass.  He will sing another day, but he needs to pick it up a bit to stay in the competition.  The favored rocker has now become the underdog.

Who's in trouble?

Travis Tucker.  Oh Travis.  You and your grin might be waving goodbye sooner than expected.  Prettiness only gets you so far.  Unless you're Justin Guarini.

David Brown.  Oh my David.  My guy!  What happened to you?  I had hopes you'd make the top 12.  You'll be lucky to make the top 22.

Jared Yates.  Backstreet Boys are hiring!  You're gonna need a day job very soon.

Joseph Murena.  I hope you survive another week, because we've really not had the opportunity to get to know you. 

What about the girls?

Safer than safe:

Carrie Underwood.  She's Simon's darling.  She will be sticking around until sometime in May.

Nadia Turner.  People want to see her go toe-to-toe with Bo.  Can you just picture them in a Ford commercial?  Me too. 

Pretty secure:

Vonzell Solomon.  A good fan base at the ready even before the game began will carry Vonzell through.  And her mediocre performance, as with the guys, was made even better by the ghastly ones that followed.

Jessica Sierra, Lindsey Cardinale and Celena Rae.  Their average, though boring, ballads were better than the worst we heard.

On the line:

Amanda Avila.  Not only did you do a repeat of a Monday song, you chose an overdone Idol song and then confused the lyrics.  And, even though Simon would like to be your microphone, don't depend on pretty to carry a whole lot of votes.  Your days are numbered.

Janay Castine.  Janay, Janay, Janay.  Janay.  How many ways are there to say wretched?

Sarah Mather.  The hype over you came crashing in.  You are going to have to pull something very magical out next time to overcome this.  And quit bossing around the audience.  It's very annoying.

Mikalah Gordon.  And speaking of annoying...

Melinda Lira.  So they think you're a young Kelly Clarkson?  I think there is already a young Kelly Clarkson, and I think one Kelly is really all we need.  What was meant as a compliment might just slash your chances.

Aloha Mischeaux.  I thought you were entertaining Tuesday, primarily because you woke me from a ballad induced stupor.  But your flashiness and showmanship run the risk of turning off huge blocks of voters.  I hope you survive at least one more week, though.

Okay...time for predictions.

Who should go?  Travis and Jared.
Who will go?      Travis and Jared.

Who should go?   Janay and Mikalah.
Who will go?       Janay and Melinda.

Alright now.  I've shown you mine.  You show me yours.